Interesting comments from the Tampa Tribune’s Roy Cummings on the Kirk and Dinger Morning Show on Monday morning. When asked what the chances were that Buccaneers head coach Greg Schiano would be back in 2014, he answered, “… 20- to 30-percent …” Despite a response that was pretty much off-the-cuff, you have to give Roy a ton of credit because historically speaking that percentage is about dead-on.
Over the last 40 NFL seasons, there have been 12 teams (I threw out the strike-shortened ’82 Colts that finished 0-8-1) that finished their season with exactly zero or one loss. They are:
- 1973 Houston Oilers (1-13)
- 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-14)
- 1980 New Orleans Saints (1-15)
- 1989 Dallas Cowboys (1-15)
- 1990 New England Patriots (1-15)
- 1991 Indianapolis Colts (1-15)
- 1996 New York Jets (1-15)
- 2000 San Diego Chargers (1-15)
- 2001 Carolina Panthers (1-15)
- 2007 Miami Dolphins (1-15)
- 2008 Detroit Lions (0-16)
- 2009 St. Louis Rams (1-15)
Four of those teams brought their coach back for another season (Bill Peterson ’73 Oilers, John McKay ’76 Bucs, Jimmy Johnson ’89 Cowboys, Steve Spagnuolo ’09 Rams). Do the math. That’s 33-percent. And that falls pretty darn close into the window that Roy Cummings predicted.
Examining that quartet a little closer we find that only Bill Peterson was in his second year as the head coach. The three others were all in their first year of major rebuilding projects. Oh, and for the record, Peterson was fired midway through that second season with the Oilers.
So Bucs fans – don’t be so stunned when hearing that there’s a chance that Greg Schiano comes back despite his struggles over the last two seasons. Why? Because Roy Cummings, and history, tells us so.